How Rishi Sunak's Immigration Agenda Backfired
Immigration has always been a sticking point in British politics, but lately, it’s turned into a tug-of-war over who gets the credit for lowering the numbers. The odd twist? Rishi Sunak, while going hard with strict immigration policies, may have served up an easy win for his rival, Keir Starmer.
Sunak's team thought bold action was the answer. They rolled out new restrictions: fewer student visas, stricter rules for the families of migrants, and plenty of loud talk about “taking control” of UK borders. The aim? Cut those net migration numbers that became tabloid fodder and a sore spot for many Tory voters still reeling post-Brexit.
But here’s where it gets tricky. The measures Sunak pushed created a wave in application surges before each deadline. That, plus a unique labor market—think shortages in everything from hospitality to healthcare—meant net migration spiked higher than anyone expected. Instead of looking tough and effective, Sunak ended up presiding over record-breaking numbers just as the electorate’s patience wore thin.
Starmer's Political Timing: Right Place, Right Time
As Keir Starmer walked into Number 10, the hard work (and the backlash) had already played out. With Sunak’s policies having taken effect and Brexit’s shockwaves settling, migration began to slide. Starmer and his team saw an opening: frame these natural drops as proof that Labour is delivering on immigration like never before. That narrative sells well, especially when the data dip matches perfectly with the first days of a new government.
But drag back the curtain, and the numbers tell a less dramatic tale. The drop wasn’t so much about fresh Labour policies—it was the slow burn of changes set in motion long before Starmer arrived. Economic cycles, industry hiring trends shifting, and demographic shifts played a part. For example, universities accepted fewer international students thanks to new visa hurdles, and employers—faced with red tape—started recruiting locally again.
Starmer’s real win? Controlling the story. By stepping in just as the figures started to fall, Labour now claims a “victory” that owes as much to Sunak’s gamble and broader economic patterns as to anything they did in office. Sunak’s heavy-handed rhetoric didn’t just fail to reassure Tory voters—it also dunked the ball straight in Labour’s hoop.
This case is a classic reminder that in politics, timing is everything. Spin and public perception shape reality just as much as policy details do. But if you dig into the stats, it’s clear that the seeds of Labour’s win were planted before Starmer even unpacked his desk. Sometimes, the numbers really do speak louder than words—especially when someone else did the groundwork.